Second Quarter 2011 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Second Quarter 2011 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Shows Emerging Markets Continue to Lead 'Uneven' Global Labor Market Recovery Indian Employers Report Strongest Hiring Plans to Date, While U.S. Employers in 10 of 13 Industry Sectors Are Set to Increase Hiring from Three Months Ago
According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today, employer hiring plans for the second quarter are strongest in emerging markets, such as India, Brazil and Turkey, compared to their more developed counterparts in the global labor market. In fact, the Manpower data shows demand for employees in India is at its strongest level since the survey began there in 2005. In contrast, hiring plans from employers in countries such as Canada, the U.S., Norway and France, while generally positive, are more subdued and demonstrate the various speeds of recovery within the global labor market. Second quarter job prospects improve in 18 countries quarter-over-quarter and in 25 compared to 12 months ago. In the U.S., employers in 10 of 13 industry sectors anticipate adding more employees in the quarter ahead compared to three months ago.
"Our second quarter data paints two very different pictures of recovery," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman and CEO of Manpower Inc. "At one end of the spectrum we see the emerging markets in overdrive with employers confronting the talent crunch, and on the other we have countries like the U.S. and Japan where we see an improved hiring pace, but clearly not at full speed. We expect to see this uneven, multi-speed recovery persist throughout 2011."
The Manpower survey shows employers in 33 of 39 countries and territories report varying degrees of positive hiring activity for the second quarter. Employers in India, Taiwan, Brazil, China, and Turkey report the strongest second-quarter hiring expectations, while those in Greece, Spain, Ireland and Italy report the weakest forecasts globally.
Hiring plans across the Asia Pacific region continue to be strong with Net Employment Outlooks improving year-over-year in seven of eight countries and territories Manpower surveys. However, compared to three months ago, Outlooks are marginally weaker in Singapore, New Zealand, China and Hong Kong. Regional hiring expectations continue to be strongest in India and Taiwan and weakest in Japan.
"Employers across the Asia Pacific region continue to have a voracious appetite for hiring, with India's strong forecast being led not by Service sector employers, but by those in the Manufacturing sector, where 62 percent expect to add employees in the quarter ahead," said Joerres. "We see a similar picture in China and Taiwan where employers in all sectors expect to ratchet up the hiring pace compared to this time last year. Meanwhile, despite reporting the least robust hiring plans in the region, Japanese employer optimism has grown for seven consecutive quartersa good sign for job seekers."
As was the case in the first quarter, job prospects across the 21 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region remain modest, with positive hiring activity expected in 15 countries. The second quarter data does point to some stability in the region with employer forecasts remaining stable or improving from three months ago in 15 countries, while year-over-year comparisons reveal stronger Outlooks in 11 countries. Notably, employers in all of the Eastern European countries surveyed are more optimistic about adding staff than they were in the first quarter. Hiring activity in the EMEA region is expected to be strongest in Turkey, Bulgaria, Belgium and Poland and weakest in Greece and Spain.
"Following the global trend, the emerging market countries of Eastern Europe are more optimistic about their ability to hire than their OECD counterparts to the west," said Joerres. "In Germany, the continued positive outlook is bolstered by the most optimistic hiring plans for the Transport/Storage/Communication sector since the survey was established in 2003we are seeing German businesses hire temporary labor at a pace last seen in the boom year of 2007. Meanwhile, hiring expectations from Belgian employers are the strongest in nearly five years, led by record optimism in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector."
Hiring outlooks remain positive to varying degrees across all 10 of the countries surveyed in the Americas region. Compared to three months ago, hiring plans are stable or improved in seven of 10 countries and have strengthened modestly in seven compared to this time last year. Regional hiring prospects are most optimistic in Brazil, Argentina and Panama and least robust in Guatemala.
"We should see the same measured hiring pace in the U.S. as we did in the first quarter however, unadjusted industry sector data reveals some positive signs, such as a notable uptick in the Manufacturing-Durables sector where nearly one in five employers expect to increase payrolls," said Joerres. "A similar trend can be seen to the south where Mexican manufacturers are reporting their strongest hiring intentions since the survey began in 2002."
"Meanwhile, facing the lowest unemployment rate since 2002, Brazilian employers will be challenged to find the right people with the right skills in the quarter aheadespecially in the Finance and Construction and sectors where the demand is strongest," said Joerres. "Individuals with in-demand skills will be in the driver's seat, able to dictate their terms to employers, of how, where and when they work. And naturally these individuals will gravitate to companies and industries which offer the best career development options and display a commitment to social responsibility."
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 14 June 2011 to report hiring expectations for the third quarter of 2011. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is available free of charge to the public through their local Manpower representative in participating countries. To receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, interested individuals are invited to complete an online subscription form at: http://investor.manpower.com/investors/alerts.cfm.