Job losses in prospect for Russia, Germany and Japan next year
In FedEE’s view “the economic war between the west and Russia” will not only have a huge impact on the Russian economy itself but, if sustained next year, will have a disproportionate impact on the EU through the German economy. German sectors that escape this crisis will, nevertheless, be constrained by labour shortages in appropriate skill areas because unemployment will remain relatively low. Germany is experiencing a contracting population with the decline already amounting to two million people in the last ten years. During the next decade this contraction will continue and accelerate in pace.
Japan appears to have overcome it deflationary price trends that have reduced consumer spending for many years. However, the principal constraint on growth appears to be the introduction of a new sales tax and greater competition from other neighboring economies. Statutory “employment guidelines” introduced earlier this year will also have a depressing affect on jobs.
The only major European country that FedEE predicts will experience significant job growth next year will be Spain (1.4%), although that will be, to a large extent, due to a partial recovery from one of the biggest economic downturns in Spanish history. All other countries reviewed by FedEE with the prospects of significant job growth are all outside Europe – with Mexico (2.8), Chile (2.2), Australia (1.8) , New Zealand (1.6%) and the USA (1.6%) leading the way.
According to FedEE”s Secretary-General, Robin Chater, these changes “illustrate how fragile the current economic recovery has become. Although in Europe the impact of the downturn hit hardest on southern countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece the recovery is now faltering for what appeared to be otherwise more robust national economies such as France, Germany and Finland. We are at the gateway to a new economic order where the USA will keep much of its dominance, but where Europe will begin to face a progressive decline.”